Not about poker!

In Miami right now, about to leave for a weeklong cruise w/ my brother and 4 friends. Gonna be pretty sweet....also,gonna be pretty weird to go for like a week with no internet and no poker (probably a good thing for my game).

Brought a couple of books--"What the What" by Dave Eggers and "Middlesex" by Jeffrey Eugenides (hopefully I'm remotely close on that spelling). Started Middlesex yesterday on the plane down, and it's really, really good so far. It's been far too long since I've read a good book.

That's about it. Bye, internet!

Video Killed the Radio Star

Two videos:

First is a Harvard Law professor being interviewed on the Colbert Report about online poker. He is a great, great spokesperson for the game. I want to give him a big hug. Also, his suggestion at the end about the presidential candidates is possibly the greatest idea I've ever heard.


Second is just one I saw on another person's blog and thought worthy of stealing. I don't watch American Idol, but this guy is awesome.

Perspective

Interesting "poker" experience tonight -- came home from work, had dinner, didn't really feel like playing at all 'cause I'm kinda under the weather. Started reading 2p2 and came across some thread about this documentary called "Poker Bustouts." Seemed like everyone found it to be pretty hilarious, so I had to take a look, and OMG is it a classic. This is a documentary about poker "pros" in the classic sense of the word. Hilarious is an understatement. So many quotable lines, I wouldn't even know where to begin. My favorite was the old guy who wore a white fur coat and called himself the "best 3/6 limit player in the world."

After that, I was reading a bit more on 2p2, came across someone rambling about starting some blog to expose the "truth" about online poker--so of course I had to check it out. Dude writes like a mix between Jack Kerouac and Hunter S. Thompson's (OK, I've actually never read anything by Hunter S. Thompson, but I imagine it has to be just like this). A quote from just the beginning of his second blog entry,

Ok since I am fucking around in micro stakes online which is the most I will do, I thought I would put some thoughts down. Now when people talk to me about online poker I get many angles on this and I really hear some thoughtful and some down right stupid shit with respect to online poker from both sides. I sit at a table and talk to many live players and they are all convinced that online is a waste of time and rigged, fair enough because they are sitting there playing live. Then I hear from people playing online that it is rigged, ok fuckers if it is rigged and you hate it why are you knowingly risking your money and then bitching about it??? I mean online to me is like a carnival game and that is it, I don’t take them seriously and I don’t take online poker seriously. Sure I see some lucky ass who is walking around with the giant stuffed animal, so some guy won that is just awesome so does that mean I will win, odds are not good. Not to mention let’s look a little deeper into this, maybe he won shit and is hired to walk around with this stupid fucking stuffed animal and a girl? I mean good marketing you are really showing that you can win, and then getting your girl to say I want one of those carny humped bacteria filled stuffed animals, and like a douche bag there you are trying to win a prize. Well then the marketing worked, and yes you too can be a winner, and let’s face it every online tournament has a winner, so why not you? You can be the next Moneymaker, take a semi retarded online donk (99% of the online players) and make him the WSOP champion, now all the other players who suck dick at poker and rely on luck to save them from themselves believe they can be WSOP champ.

The blog is called Shoveit.com if anyone cares for a laugh (or a glimpse into the world of the mentally deranged).

So, this all got me thinking about how stupid the average person is and oh god we have a general election in 10 months to determine the next leader of the free world. Some days democracy seems like a worse idea than others (I can hear my brother in my head, "We don't have a democracy; we have a republic," but whatever--you get the point).

Anyway Pandora is playing some awesome country song right now (apparently it's Old Shoes by Tom Waits, never heard it before), so all is good here. This weekend is going to be very cold; I am hoping to stay inside and get a ton of hands in. Weekend poker is almost as good as holiday poker. I think the point of this post overall is that I have keep in mind that 90% of my opponents at the poker table are certain idiots or not far from it, and when I try to out-think them when they're not thinking of much at all, I just end up owning myself.

Results Oriented

Put in a couple hours at Pokerstars tonight; lost like 3 buyins b/c that's how I roll these days but feel like I played very well overall. Ran my overpairs into sets twice [neither were places I could even consider folding--one was a reraised pot and the other a super-drawy flop against a guy with a postflop AF of like 12(!)]. Got sucked out on in one big pot with bottom set against a flush draw.

I'm planning to play a lot more at Pokerstars this year. I figure I can put in enough hands to make their points system be worth more than rakeback at Full Tilt. Also, there's something kind of alluring to me about chasing supernova--I can be less results oriented in the short term and just focus my obsession of "keeping score" on seeing how many player points I can accumulate. Pokerstars really has a fantastic rewards program for heavy multi-tablers--I think someone calculated that achieving "Supernova Elite" is worth over $100K in and of itself (in terms of the different bonuses you get as you accumulate points). It won't be possible for me to get Elite w/ a full-time day job, but if I don't get to supernova by the end of the year, I'll be highly disappointed. Only two problems stand in my way right now--one, I am not nearly as used to Stars' software as I am to FTP, so it's gonna take me a while to work up to 12 tables. I only played six tonight and probably shouldn't go above 8 for the time being. Second problem is simply that the full-ring tables are infested with multitabling 2p2ers; I feel like NL200 at Stars plays like NL400 at Full Tilt. And it's weird not having any read on the regulars yet -- I feel like I can't take any nonstandard lines b/c I don't know how anyone will react to them. (Maybe this is a good thing, heh.)

OK, my third problem is that if I don't stop running bad soon I'm gonna bust my Stars account. I've never busted an account in my life, and I don't really want to start now!...I'm not actually in much danger of losing my Stars roll, but it would be kind of demoralizing to have to move down to NL100. This month so far has been demoralizing enough. I'm getting seriously worried that this is going to be my first losing month ever, which would be pretty funny* considering December was my best month ever. *Unfortunately, I don't mean funny as in Woody Allen-movie funny, but more like "please just shoot me now" funny.

Here is the best example of why poker is a cruel, cruel game and how it can toy with you. First graph is the first 15 days of December (hottest I've ever run); second is the first 15 days of January (not the worst I've ever run, but painful nonetheless).

December:


January:


The one good thing about downswings is they really motivate me to work on my game. I hate losing. Gonna go watch a video and try to plug a leak or two.

More on Downswings

Meant to post this before. This is something Jman on 2p2 posted in his "in the well" thread, which is the best thread I've read in a loooong, looong time. The part about going on autopilot when running bad really hit home for me -- I never realized how true that is of myself until I read it. Anyway, quote:

people play worse and less decisively when stuck. They don't trust their decisions as much. The opposite is true for players who are running better.

Also when players are losing, they often go on autopilot and hope to run good. Players who are winning think about every hand and look for any +EV spot. This might have the effect of the losing player not fighting for the small pots.

Someone losing is often scared to make correct plays because they feel their opponent is inside their head. They can envision their (good) river bluff getting snapcalled with bottom pair, so they opt not to make it. Things like that.

Lazy

Got a million things to do at work but can't seem to get myself motivated to do more than the bare minimum. Standard Monday. Mid-year performance reviews were due today (basically we review our own performance--it's all very dumb); I just hope they don't tell me I have to start getting into work on time. No matter what I do, I always seem to get here 20 minutes late. I usually get to the parking garage on time, though--they should start the clock there!

My brother went back to school yesterday. I'm looking forward to getting the basement cleaned up and organized now. Matt is possibly the messiest person I have ever known. Still, I miss having him around; life is always duller when he's not here to annoy me.

Didn't play any poker yesterday, which is a good thing I suppose, although it sucks for the bankroll only playing 1 out of 3 weekend days. I did watch a couple of videos, even one on limit hold 'em (!). Usually the games are the worst on Monday and Tuesday, so I don't know if I'll bother playing tonight. Maybe just clean the basement some more.

Went out to dinner Friday with friends at a place called Uncommon Ground in Wrigleyville. Some pictures:

My friend Lauren and her boyfriend, Jeff. I love Lauren's expression here--the menu is very surprising!


Matt, Virag and Murtaza


Murtaza's girlfriend is fostering an awesome older dog--we stopped by her apt to visit it. I think Matt fell in love.

Not Quite There

Trying to climb out of my downswing; played decently today for the most part. Flopping the underset in 3 big hands didn't help the cause much, though. Here's the worst of them:

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

CO: $761.25
BTN: $472.90
SB: $361.50
BB: $192.50
UTG: $95.90
UTG+1: $634.40
UTG+2: $104
Hero (MP1): $720.40
MP2: $410.70

Pre-Flop: Kh Kd dealt to Hero (MP1)
UTG calls $4, UTG+1 raises to $18, UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to $64, 6 folds, UTG+1 calls $46

Flop: ($138) Ks As Qs (2 Players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $80, UTG+1 raises to $326, Hero raises to $656.40 and is All-In, UTG+1 calls $244.40 and is All-In

Turn: ($1,278.80) 5h (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($1,278.80) 8d (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $1,278.80 Pot ($3 Rake)
UTG+1 showed Ah Ad (three of a kind, Aces) and WON $1,275.80 (+$641.40 NET)
Hero showed Kh Kd (three of a kind, Kings) and LOST (-$634.40 NET)


I made one stupid stack-off preflop to Stylistic (AJs < AK) and a couple bets I wish I could take back. On the other hand, at least I'm not as bad as villain in this hand:

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $470.30
MP2: $628.60
CO: $92.20
BTN: $400
SB: $402
BB: $232
UTG: $133.80
Hero (UTG+1): $1,089
UTG+2: $392

MP2 posts $2
MP2 posts $4
Pre-Flop: Ks Kc dealt to Hero (UTG+1)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $20, 2 folds, MP2 calls $16, 4 folds

Flop: ($46) Qh 2d 6s (2 Players)
Hero bets $32, MP2 calls $32

Turn: ($110) 4h (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $64, Hero raises to $172, MP2 calls $108

River: ($454) 2c (2 Players)
Hero bets $865 and is All-In, MP2 calls $402.60

Results: $1,259.20 Pot ($3 Rake)
MP2 showed 3c 3h (two pair, Threes and Twos) and LOST (-$626.60 NET)
Hero showed Ks Kc (two pair, Kings and Twos) and WON $1,258.20 (+$631.60 NET)

Downswings Suck

Not much to say here. Playing meh, running bad, frustration level is high. I have a hard time keeping my confidence level up when I go through a downswing. Poker is the ultimate mind-fuck, I guess. When you run hot, you feel like you got the whole game figured out, bad beats just roll off your back, your winrate feels invincible. When you run bad, everything seems to go wrong -- bluffs don't work, you don't get enough value out of your big hands, sometimes it even feels like opponents can see your fucking hole cards.

I did play this fun hand yesterday, which one of the regs posted on 2p2:



I had AsKs, obv. :-)

Hand Reading 101

I saw this hand posted on 2p2, the poster having been impressed by the seeming "soul-reading" Urindanger made to call the river. It is definitely an impressive hand, don't get me wrong, but it is also a fairly standard hand for good high stakes players. What caught my attention about it, and interested me enough to post it here, is that this hand is a perfect example of hand reading/ constructing a story from the line someone takes in a hand.

Full Tilt Poker $100.00/$200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Urindanger (BB): $31297.50
Hansome Man (BTN/SB): $10696.00

Pre Flop:
Hansome Man raises to $600, Urindanger calls $400

Flop: ($1200.00) A Q 7 (2 players)
Urindanger checks, Hansome Man bets $1200, Urindanger calls $1200

Turn: ($3600.00) 8 (2 players)
Urindanger checks, Hansome Man checks

River: ($3600.00) Q (2 players)
Urindanger checks, Hansome Man bets $3600, Urindanger calls $3600

Final Pot: $10800.00
Urindanger shows Tc Kd (a pair of Queens)
Hansome Man shows 9c Jd (a pair of Queens)
Urindanger wins $10799.50
(Rake: $0.50)

People who I would classify as "novice" poker players aren't really going to understand this hand--to them it would look like a very big call with King high and something closer to a lucky guess than a solid read. Players who are slightly more advanced, however, can look at this hand and understand perfectly Urindanger's logic in calling the river. A quick explanation:

On the flop, Urindanger elects to float OOP with King-high -- he has flopped a gutshot draw and also, since this is a heads-up match, where relative hand values are vastly different than, say, a full ring game, king high is often still the best hand. His opponent is likely either making a standard c-bet with air or has hit top pair.

On the turn, a relative blank comes, and when Urindanger checks again, Hansome Man chooses to check behind. This is a key component of the hand--it now looks most likely that Hansome Man was just taking a stab at the pot with his flop c-bet and has given up on the hand once Urindanger indicates he has caught a piece of the board with his flop call.

Now, on the river, a second queen falls, and Urindanger again checks to his opponent. Hansome Man makes a PSB. The reason Urindanger is able to call this with K-high is that Hansome Man is not able to represent many believable hands with this sequence of actions. If Hansome Man had an ace, he likely would have bet the turn again for value (and may have then checked behind the river when the 2nd Q came, as from his perspective, a queen is definitely in Urindanger's range for how the hand has played so far). Aside from the flop bet, Hansome Man has played the opposite of how you would expect someone with an ace to play this hand.

Another possibility is that Hansome Man has a queen in his hand and has now made trip Qs on the river. However, again, this doesn't fit the prior betting pattern all that well. If Hansome Man flopped middle pair, this would be a good spot for him to check behind the flop--he would have a hand with excellent showdown value but not quite strong enough to withstand a flop checkraise (most of the time). Surely Hansome Man is not checking behind the flop every time he flops a good but non-top pair or better hand, but I would imagine it would be his choice >50% of the time. The other aspect of the hand that makes him unlikely to have a queen is simply that another queen fell on the board by the river--from a simple mathematical perspective, this makes it less likely that he has a queen, as two of the four in the deck are already accounted for.

Another thing that may have gone into Urindanger's read is his opponent's bet sizing. Since I have no idea of Hansome Man's standard bet sizing, though, I'll leave that part alone...all in all, a cool hand...since Hansome Man doesn't seem likely to have either an ace or a queen as hole cards, Urindanger is able to make the call with King high.

Favorite HHs of 2007

A few of my favorite hands from this past year...

------------------
HAND #1
------------------

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $609.10
MP: $419.30
CO: $284.50
BTN: $404
SB: $374
Hero (BB): $454.40
UTG: $521.30

Pre-Flop: 7d 5d dealt to Hero (BB)
5 folds, SB raises to $12, Hero raises to $36, SB calls $24

Flop: ($72) 3c Qc Jh (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $40, SB calls $40

Turn: ($152) Td (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $108, SB calls $108

River: ($368) 9h (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $270.40 and is All-In, SB folds

Results: $368 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero mucked 7d 5d and WON $365 (+$181 NET)


------------------
HAND #2
------------------

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 3 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

SB: $184.90
BB: $388
Hero (BTN): $400

Pre-Flop: Qh 9h dealt to Hero (BTN)
Hero calls $4, SB raises to $184.90 and is All-In, BB folds, Hero calls $180.90

Flop: ($373.80) Ad 2s 4h (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Turn: ($373.80) 6h (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($373.80) Kc (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $373.80 Pot ($1 Rake)
SB showed Tc Jh (Ace King high) and LOST (-$184.90 NET)
Hero showed Qh 9h (Ace King high) and WON $372.80 (+$187.90 NET)


------------------
HAND #3
------------------

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $313.80
Hero (SB): $535.10
BB: $174
UTG: $863.10

Pre-Flop: Ad Qs dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG raises to $14, BTN folds, Hero raises to $46, BB folds, UTG calls $32

Flop: ($96) 6s 8h Kc (2 Players)
Hero bets $60, UTG calls $60

Turn: ($216) Td (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: ($216) 2d (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $140, Hero raises to $429.10 and is All-In, UTG folds

Results: $496 Pot ($2 Rake)
Hero mucked Ad Qs and WON $494 (+$248 NET)


------------------
HAND #4
------------------

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $1,655.25
CO: $1,288.20
BTN: $449.70
Hero (SB): $562.20
BB: $400
UTG: $2,803.90
UTG+1: $200
MP1: $895.95

Pre-Flop: Jd Jc dealt to Hero (SB)
3 folds, MP2 raises to $8, CO raises to $35, BTN folds, Hero raises to $88, 2 folds, CO calls $53

Flop: ($188) 3h 3d Ks (2 Players)
Hero bets $110, CO calls $110

Turn: ($408) 2s (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($408) Ts (2 Players)
Hero bets $364.20 and is All-In, CO folds

Results: $408 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero mucked Jd Jc and WON $405 (+$207 NET)

New Years Resolution

This is bothering me--is it New Years Resolution or New Year's Resolution? I think it looks better w/o the apostrophe. My personal opinion is that apostrophes are evolving out of our language and in 50 years no one will bother to use them. But I digress.

So I have been thinking about several resolutions for this year, although I have never bothered to make resolutions before. This year I want to be different. One of my resolutions is that I would like to start writing again, even if it just means making stupid little blog posts, at least it will be something to start with -- hence, I am restarting this blog! Since these days poker is a huge part of my life, for better or worse, I was thinking of just turning this into a poker blog. But I think I will keep it a general blog interspersed with random poker moments. That should work. I am excited to see how my game develops this year, and writing stuff down should help me track my progress/swings/hopefully a logical epiphany or two.

So, yeah, cliffs notes: I'm excited to be trying this blogging thing again; we'll see how long it lasts. I hope to make several entries per week, poker or otherwise.