Hand Reading 101

I saw this hand posted on 2p2, the poster having been impressed by the seeming "soul-reading" Urindanger made to call the river. It is definitely an impressive hand, don't get me wrong, but it is also a fairly standard hand for good high stakes players. What caught my attention about it, and interested me enough to post it here, is that this hand is a perfect example of hand reading/ constructing a story from the line someone takes in a hand.

Full Tilt Poker $100.00/$200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Urindanger (BB): $31297.50
Hansome Man (BTN/SB): $10696.00

Pre Flop:
Hansome Man raises to $600, Urindanger calls $400

Flop: ($1200.00) A Q 7 (2 players)
Urindanger checks, Hansome Man bets $1200, Urindanger calls $1200

Turn: ($3600.00) 8 (2 players)
Urindanger checks, Hansome Man checks

River: ($3600.00) Q (2 players)
Urindanger checks, Hansome Man bets $3600, Urindanger calls $3600

Final Pot: $10800.00
Urindanger shows Tc Kd (a pair of Queens)
Hansome Man shows 9c Jd (a pair of Queens)
Urindanger wins $10799.50
(Rake: $0.50)

People who I would classify as "novice" poker players aren't really going to understand this hand--to them it would look like a very big call with King high and something closer to a lucky guess than a solid read. Players who are slightly more advanced, however, can look at this hand and understand perfectly Urindanger's logic in calling the river. A quick explanation:

On the flop, Urindanger elects to float OOP with King-high -- he has flopped a gutshot draw and also, since this is a heads-up match, where relative hand values are vastly different than, say, a full ring game, king high is often still the best hand. His opponent is likely either making a standard c-bet with air or has hit top pair.

On the turn, a relative blank comes, and when Urindanger checks again, Hansome Man chooses to check behind. This is a key component of the hand--it now looks most likely that Hansome Man was just taking a stab at the pot with his flop c-bet and has given up on the hand once Urindanger indicates he has caught a piece of the board with his flop call.

Now, on the river, a second queen falls, and Urindanger again checks to his opponent. Hansome Man makes a PSB. The reason Urindanger is able to call this with K-high is that Hansome Man is not able to represent many believable hands with this sequence of actions. If Hansome Man had an ace, he likely would have bet the turn again for value (and may have then checked behind the river when the 2nd Q came, as from his perspective, a queen is definitely in Urindanger's range for how the hand has played so far). Aside from the flop bet, Hansome Man has played the opposite of how you would expect someone with an ace to play this hand.

Another possibility is that Hansome Man has a queen in his hand and has now made trip Qs on the river. However, again, this doesn't fit the prior betting pattern all that well. If Hansome Man flopped middle pair, this would be a good spot for him to check behind the flop--he would have a hand with excellent showdown value but not quite strong enough to withstand a flop checkraise (most of the time). Surely Hansome Man is not checking behind the flop every time he flops a good but non-top pair or better hand, but I would imagine it would be his choice >50% of the time. The other aspect of the hand that makes him unlikely to have a queen is simply that another queen fell on the board by the river--from a simple mathematical perspective, this makes it less likely that he has a queen, as two of the four in the deck are already accounted for.

Another thing that may have gone into Urindanger's read is his opponent's bet sizing. Since I have no idea of Hansome Man's standard bet sizing, though, I'll leave that part alone...all in all, a cool hand...since Hansome Man doesn't seem likely to have either an ace or a queen as hole cards, Urindanger is able to make the call with King high.